Tuesday, July 22, 2014

4 Reasons Not to Draft Jay Cutler

Jay Cutler is the talk of the town this year (hasn't he been this way the last few seasons?), but I'm going to lay out a plethora of reasons to avoid him at all costs.

1. He doesn't have a history of success.

This should be the only reason you need, but it obviously isn't enough for most people.  Jay Cutler has only averaged more than 240 yards per game once in his career, and that was 6 seasons ago in 2008 with the Broncos. Over the last four seasons, Cutler has not broken 23 touchdown passes. He has also been injured each of those four seasons. Cutler has had only one season in his 8 year career where he was fantasy relevant.

2. He has a history of injury.

For all the grief that other players get about their injuries, Cutler hears very little of it. Cutler has been injured each of the last four seasons, and he isn't getting any younger. There's no guarantee that he will get injured, but he has a better chance than most other top quarterbacks.

3. He turns the ball over...a lot.

It's really impressive how often Cutler turns the ball over. Using the last four seasons in Chicago Cutler has played in 51 games and has turned the ball over 45 times (39 interceptions and 16 fumbles). He has thrown 74 touchdown passes in that same time frame. Cutler just doesn't have the points from production to afford those losses from turnovers.

4. What you see is what you get.

Cutler is an aged quarterback that isn't going to get better. Compared to quarterbacks like Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, RGIII, or even Cam Newton, the odds of Cutler improving are slim-to-none. Unfortunately for Cutler, what you see is awful. Averaging 14 points per game isn't going to win you any games when people like Tannehill are averaging more than that. Want to hear something scary? Tannehill's 3,900 yards and 24 touchdowns are more than Cutler has achieved since 2008 in Denver.

Before you talk about injuries, even if you project his stats for the whole season Cutler would have only reached 3,800 yards and 27 touchdowns last year. That puts him behind 14 quarterbacks in years and tied for 8th in touchdowns. Those touchdowns are less impressive when you consider that Cutler doesn't have the points from rushing that prop Wilson, Newton, Kaepernick, or Griffin up despite their low touchdown numbers.

In conclusion, please don't draft Cutler. I know it's appealing to think that Cutler will have a big season at that he will be a steal in the 8th or 9th round, but the truth of the matter is that he has never been that guy and he never will be that guy. It's not impossible, but it's better to take a risk on Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, or even Alex Smith at the bottom of the draft.

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