Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Week 6 Player Rankings

This is one of my favorite posts of the week (and one of the only I've finished this week) because it is something you can actually call me out on. You might be able to say something about my trade suggestions or waiver acquisition suggestions, but the real meat of fantasy football is making weekly waiver predictions. As you guys may know, I have designed a method of analyzing and assessing weekly player rankings (I've been told that it is confusing, but the article can be found here) and I look forward to making comparisons between my rankings and other notable fantasy minds from this week forward. I expect that I will be completely blown out of the water, but that's the fun of fantasy; you are in direct competition with so many people and the results are absolutely tangible and final (although I completely disagree with the reassignment of the Mendenhall lateral into a forward pass).

This week I'm going to be basing my predictions much more heavily on defensive rankings (you can see a week 4 post about them here), so expect a few surprises compared to other sites. I'm going to try to get my spreadsheet up for everyone to see with defensive point totals and player point totals and projections, but it is still in a rough state right now and might not be ready until Saturday. It's something I can easily update weekly, but it was a lot of work in the short term and it kept me from writing. Anyways, I am always happy to field questions, comments, and complaints; differing opinions is the beauty of fantasy football. As always, I wish everyone the best in their Week 6 matchups. We're getting towards the halfway point, and four teams -- Jaguars, Bears, Saints, and Panthers -- have their BYE in week 6.

If you want a historical record: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, and Week 5.


Quarterbacks:

Over 18 Fantasy Points:
  1. Matt Ryan vs OAK - Matt Ryan is up against one of the worst defenses in fantasy football. The only worry is that they stop throwing in the second half.
  2. Peyton Manning @ SD - It's hard to argue with 3 consecutive weeks over 20 fantasy points. The only bad week was against ATL's 23rd ranked defense against fantasy QBs.
  3. Ben Roethlisberger @ TEN - The Thursday night game is typically bad on offenses, but this Tennessee team looks ripe for the picking. They're 3rd best for QBs.
  4. Aaron Rodgers @ HOU - The Houston defense is tough, but Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the NFL. HOU's defense hasn't stopped a real quarterback yet (Manning scored 21+).
  5. Andy Dalton @ CLE - Watch the weather on this one, but Dalton crushed the Browns defense once this year. It will be interesting to see if Haden makes a difference this week. 
  6. Tom Brady @ SEA - Seattle is probably the toughest overall defense in the NFL. Brady is going to have a tough game.
  7. Christian Ponder @ WAS - Ponder might be able to do some extra damage with his legs running away from Carriker. 'Skins are 4th best for fantasy QBs.
  8. Kevin Kolb vs BUF - Kolb has had one of the toughest schedules so far (SEA, PHI, MIA, and STL). Anything less than 18 points would be underachieving.
Between 15 and 18 Fantasy Points:
  1. Matthew Stafford @ PHI - For all the bad press on Stafford, he hasn't been that bad. He's a decent play this week.
  2. Matt Schaub vs GB - In the prime time spotlight Schaub should have a good game. I think the Packers are quick enough to make his stumble on some play action...but not every time.
  3. Andrew Luck @ NYJ - The Jets probably won't be shutting down Luck with Revis out. Cromartie is great, but not elite. With Brown out, Luck has to throw.
  4. Philip Rivers vs DEN - Second consecutive spotlight game. The Rivers-Cutler rivalry is over...which is awesome, because those guys were obnoxious. The Denver defense has been decent, not good.
  5. Brandon Weeden vs CIN - Weeden had a good game when they last met up. He should be decent against the 12th best defense for QBs.
  6. Tony Romo @ BAL - You can hate on my for this ranking, but I have a hard time believing Romo is that bad this season. Cassel, Weeden, Vick, and Dalton didn't have the Cowboys receivers.
  7. Michael Vick vs DET - It is hard to imagine that Vick stops turning the ball over against this defensive line. 
  8. Joe Flacco vs DAL - I'm starting Flacco this week because Brees is on BYE, but I wish I weren't I might try starting Kolb over him. This Dallas defense has been awesome.
  9. Robert Griffin III vs MIN - The Minnesota defense is strong, and I worry about him being help out or limited. I called a bust last week for Griffin. He was doing that before the injury.
  10. Josh Freeman vs KC - It's a real mystery where the one good season Freeman had went. Any quarterback going against KC should be higher than this.
  11. Eli Manning @ SF - It's hard to trust and quarterback at San Francisco. He could outplay this ranking.
  12. Mark Sanchez vs IND - Sanchez has been playing erratically without any real receivers. This week against the Colts is a little easier.
Below 15 Points:
  1. Sam Bradford @ MIA - The Dolphins defense has been one of the great surprises this season. The Rams have to work without Amendola for a while.
  2. Ryan Fitzpatrick @ ARI - I had faith in him until the 49ers defense stuffed him. The Cardinals defense is tougher on opposing fantasy QBs.
  3. Alex Smith vs NYG -  I know what he did to the Bills. Everyone does that to the Bills.
  4. Carson Palmer @ ATL - I promised a reader two weeks ago that I would cut Palmer a break if he played well against Denver. He didn't, and Atlanta is better.


Running Backs:

Over 16 Fantasy Points:
  1. Arian Foster vs GB - Foster is just the best RB in the NFL right now.
  2. Trent Richardson vs CIN - He is much healthier than last time these teams played.
  3. Darren McFadden @ ATL - I was so frustrated that the Redskins didn't just run a power stretch between the guard and the tackle every play. Atlanta doesn't stop the run.
  4. Rashard Mendenhall @ TEN - Mendenhall had a burst he just didn't have last season. The MCL myth has been busted by modern science, if last week is any indication.
  5. Ryan Mathews vs DEN - I put my vote in for Ryan Mathews a week too early, but I didnt back down last week. This guy is so much better than Jackie Battle.
  6. Jamaal Charles @ TB - When your running back gets 30+ touches per game you can't believe they won't get 16 points. How Charles doesn't find the end zone on all those yards is a mystery.
Between 12 and 16 Points:
  1. DeMarco Murray @ BAL - When did the Ravens stop crushing the run? They have been lax since they stuffed Stevan Ridley.
  2. Reggie Bush vs STL - Reggie should be back to nearly full health this week, and the Rams don't have an especially good run defense.
  3. Michael Turner vs OAK - Turner the Burner can finally have his nickname back. He should burn the Oakland defense...like every other running back.
  4. Ray Rice vs DAL - As a Rice owner it hurts me to put him here, but the Ravens are not committed to him. Last weekend against the Chiefs was atrocious.
  5. Frank Gore vs NYG - It always amazes me that the Giants aren't better against the run.
  6. Chris Johnson vs PIT - It is hard to say if CJ2k is going up against good defenses or if he is turning them into good defenses.
  7. LeSean McCoy vs DET - It looks like I may end up being right about the McCoy vs Mathews debate. Shady needs to score touchdowns.
  8. Doug Martin @ TB - I, like most fantasy owners, am starting to lose faith in Martin. I've traded him away in all my leagues now. If he gets 20 carries he could do something against the Bucs.
  9. Willis McGahee @ SD - I live in constant fear of McGahee getting injured. The matchup against the Chargers is actually a good one, relatively.
  10. Adrian Peterson @ WAS - The Redskins have been shutting down opposing running backs. Peterson is good, but the snap count is holding him back.
  11. Mikel LeShoure @ PHI - This is LeShoure's chance to cement his place as the starter. Best is looking at a return soon. 
  12. Marshawn Lynch vs NE - Now Lynch could definitely go for 100 yards and a touchdown, but the Patriots have been excellent against the run this season. This is much closer to the expected level of performance.
Between 8 and 12 Fantasy Points:
  1. BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ CLE - It seems like the early emphasis on the run game is long gone. The Law Firm hasn't been very productive lately.
  2. Alfred Morris vs MIN - I am starting him this week, but I don't expect a whole lot out of him against the Minnesota defense.
  3. Stevan Ridley @ SEA - The Seattle defense is the 3rd best against opposing runners. Don't expect another huge game.
  4. Shonn Greene vs IND - The schedule finally opens up for Greene. He needs to get 15-20 touches to get any real value.
  5. Jacquizz Rodgers vs OAK - The last time the Falcons blew an opponent out Rodgers got 15 touches for 67 yards and a touchdown. 
  6. C.J. Spiller @ ARI - It's hard to believe that a player can go from top NFL running back to serious afterthought in one week. He didn't even miss any time with his injury.\
  7. Vick Ballard @ NYJ - In most cases I wouldn't go for a guy like Ballard, but the Jets run defense is 5th best for opposing RBs.
  8. Ahmad Bradshaw @ SF - The 49ers have been allowing less than 8 points to running backs per game. Less than 3 yards per carry on nearly 20 touches per game is excellent.
  9. The Cardinals Starter vs BUF - I'm still not sure who it will be at this point and it's a shame. I would have liked to see Ryan Williams face this Bills defense.
Under 8 Fantasy Points:
  1. Alex Green @ HOU - As much as I love the Packers, I doubt Green will do anything special against the Texans. He might get lucky and score a touchdown, but the Texans have only allowed one touchdown to RBs this season...and that was through the air.
  2. Steven Jackson @ MIA - I was trying to decide whether I should put him above or below Blount. I put him above on the guaranteed carries.
  3. LeGarrette Blount vs KC - I see this Tampa team moving towards and RBBC.
  4. Fred Jackson @ ARI - Jackson is older and slower than Spiller, and the Cards have a tough run defense.      
  

Wide Receivers:

Over 16 Fantasy Points:
  1. Percy Harvin @ WAS - The Redskins give up the most points to WRs, and Harvin runs this offense.
  2. Roddy White vs OAK - I think Roddy is still the preferred target in Atlanta, and the Raiders can't seem to cover anyone.
  3. Calvin Johnson @ PHI - Megatron is still Megatron. They've had two weeks to prepare for this matchup.
  4. A.J. Green @ CLE - The return of Joe Haden drops Green to #4.
  5. Larry Fitzgerald vs BUF - Buffalo provides the 4th most points to receivers, unlike STL which provides the 28th most points. Gotta love that matchup.
  6. Dwayne Bowe @ TB - Despite the probable change in quarterback (I can honestly and unabashedly say I haven't followed the Cassel injury news), Bowe is still the best receiver on this team against a terrible TB pass defense.
  7. Reggie Wayne @ NYJ - A reader mentioned last week that I was finally giving Wayne his due credit. It sure payed off, didn't it. He was right around this spot last week, too.
  8. Demaryius Thomas @ SD - You have to think that eventually this guy will get back to 100 yards and a touchdown. The huge yardage and fumbles has been frustrating for fantasy owners (but still better than most receivers).
  9. Jeremy Kerley vs IND - I'm going to throw Kerley a bone and give him this week against the 6th best WR matchup.
Between 14 and 16 Fantasy Points:
  1. Julio Jones vs OAK - This is more fantasy points to WRs than the Raiders usually give up, but the Falcons don't carry your average offense around.
  2. Mike Wallace @ TEN - Mike Wallace has been playing pretty well, but he needs to make plays this week. He has huge potential.
  3. Stevie Johnson @ ARI - He gets plenty of targets, but he needs to make them count this week.
  4. Jordy Nelson @ HOU - It's hard to see Nelson falling this far, but he just hasn't produced. It's obvious that the Jennings and now Benson injuries are hurting the Packers offense.
  5. Dez Bryant @ BAL - I don't know where his hands went before the bye week, but if he got them back he should be a good play.
  6. Andre Johnson vs GB - Johnson could be a lot higher than this, but I worry about his recent lack of production. Their ground game is just too good.
  7. Wes Welker @ SEA - The yardage machine just isn't finding the end zone. The real Wes Welker is back.
  8. Victor Cruz @ SF - I can't decide if this Giants offense is going to buck the trend or just wither against the 49ers.
  9. Torrey Smith vs DAL - The Cowboys are one of the best in the league against opposing receivers, but Smith should get at least one good deep look this game.
  10. Denarius Moore @ ATL - I can't promise this, but I like Moore's chance this week. The Falcons are going to need to throw.
  11. Malcom Floyd vs DEN - Meachem got all the touchdowns last game, but Floyd got a lot of yards. I think things will go back to normal this week.
  12. Pierre Garcon vs MIN - He could have a nice game, but this defense is just so tough these days.
  13. James Jones @ HOU - It's hard to not have him higher, but the game with -0.1 points still haunts me.
Between 12 and 14 Fantasy Points:
  1. Antonio Brown @ TEN - Yardage and no scores: The story of Antonio Brown.
  2. Andre Roberts vs BUF - This guy is one of the leading scorers so far this season. Gotta love his consistency.
  3. Eric Decker @ SD - Nothing against Decker, but he just hasn't been getting the right looks. It's hard to put him down here so far, but I don't see this being his game.
  4. Miles Austin @ BAL - Miles Austin boasts the best worst game of any receiver in the NFL at this point in the season. All four games he's been over 10 points. 
  5. DeSean Jackson vs DET - The Lions defense is 26th toughest against receivers. That makes for a tough game this weekend.
  6. Vincent Jackson vs KC - The feeling I get from this guy is that he's good against good matchups and bad against tough ones. The Chiefs are 23rd toughest.
  7. Brian Hartline vs STL - He's no sure thing, but he has potential.
  8. Kenny Britt vs PIT - I still have no idea what to expect out of this guy. He could get 20 points or 2 points.
  9. Sydney Rice vs NE - A pure matchup play, the Patriots are 7th best for receivers. I wish Flynn would get some starts...word is his elbow is sore (correct me if that's the wrong body part).
  10. Andrew Hawkins @ CLE - If Haden has Green locked down, Hawkins could be in for a big game.
Below 12 Fantasy Points:
  1. Anquan Boldin vs DAL - Again, Dallas is allowing so few points to receivers this season, but Boldin has been productive. Beware a terrible game from him.
  2. Donald Jones @ ARI - I like Donald Jones a lot, but he needs to develop better chemistry with Fitzpatrick. 
  3. Brandon Gibson @ MIA - He should see more looks with Amendola out.
  4. Jeremy Maclin vs DET - Maclin hasn't looked right since coming back from injury. Maybe if Vick stopped turning the ball over he'd get more chances.
  5. Michael Crabtree vs NYG - Someone has to catch passes for this team, right? Maybe?
  6. Randall Cobb @ HOU - Cobb is going to be my sleeper pick for this week. He could see a lot of plays out of the backfield with Jennings and Benson injured.
  7. Greg Little vs CIN - I know he's been inconsistent, but he's still probably the best receiver at getting open on this team. I don't know how much that matters if he can't catch the ball.
  8. Brandon Lloyd @ SEA - I can't see a deep, timing receiver doing well against this pack of defensive backs.
  9. Domenik Hixon @ SF - This is a really tough matchup against the 49ers.
  10. Mario Manningham vs NYG - Manningham has become much more trusted on this offense lately.
  11. Brandon Stokely @ SD - Stokely is always a threat to score a touchdown and get 10 points.
  12. Donnie Avery @ NYJ - I still like him as a solid WR4/5.
  13. Davone Bess vs STL - Top 25 in yards but no touchdowns. It's an interesting mix.


Tight Ends: Just like everyone, I'm bad at predicting tight ends
  1. Tony Gonzalez vs OAK - He's been one of the best this season.
  2. Rob Gronkowski @ SEA - Not as consistent as last year, but still damn good.
  3. Vernon Davis vs NYG - The consistent receiver for the 49ers offense.
  4. Heath Miller @ TEN - Tennessee has given up the most fantasy points to tight ends.
  5. Owen Daniels vs GB - He has been excellent lately.
  6. Brent Celek vs DET - The Lions give up over 10 points per game to tight ends.
  7. Kyle Rudolph @ WAS - The Redskins give up the second most points to tight ends.
  8. Antonio Gates vs DEN - With the Broncos the 8th best for TEs, this is his chance.
  9. Martellus Bennett @ SF - The 49ers are only average against TEs.
  10. Brandon Pettigrew @ PHI - He seems consistent with multiple touches per game.
  11. Dennis Pitta vs DAL - Could have a nice game here, DAL is 11th best for TEs.
  12. Fred Davis vs MIN - The Vikings give up plenty of points to tight ends.
  13. Jason Witten @ BAL - Big game in garbage time before the bye.
  14. Jared Cook vs PIT - He has touchdown potential on every play. Unique for a TE.
  15. Aaron Hernandez @ SEA - Just in case he plays.

1 comment:

  1. Sooo you think hakeem nicks won't play/isn't scoring? Damn. Well at least you're thinking Hartline will do ok. I hope you're wrong about Luck, my friend and I are doing a rookie QB matchup in our league match (Luck vs RG3) and I've got RG3 heheh. Sacrificing a lot since I have Dalton to his Eli Manning or Matt Stafford and the rest of my team is quite a bit less consistently good.

    ReplyDelete