Wednesday, October 17, 2012

W7 Fantasy Preview: Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills

Week 7 Previews

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills - 1:00pm EST Sunday

If there is any game this week with the potential to be extremely ugly while providing lots of fantasy points, this definitely has to be it. These teams have allowed 26 passing touchdowns (13 each in 6 games each) and 14 total touchdowns to running backs (8 for the Bills, 6 for the Titans). To go along with all of these terrible defensive stats, neither team is especially bad at generating turnovers and both offenses are certainly adept at playing really ugly football on occasion. The great news for fantasy owners is that most of us couldn't care how ugly the game is as long as there is lots of running and lots of scoring. This game should end up being about 28-24 with plenty of yards to go around. This game should finally answer the C.J. Spiller/Fred Jackson question. I was surprised by the success of both players last week, and it is difficult to assess the long-term potential of either player when they are going up against three tough run defenses in a row (NE, SF, and ARI). This should be a good week for everyone involved if the weather in Buffalo cooperates.

Fantasy Outlook: Excellent

9th Ryan Fitzpatrick - Fitzpatrick has been very successful against weaker passing defenses, and the return of his running backs to the passing game is a huge asset. The last two weeks against the 49ers and Cardinals have been very bad for Fitzpatrick, but no quarterbacks have been great against those two defenses. Anything less than 18 fantasy points out of Fitzpatrick is probably a disappointment, especially since C.J. Spiller is so good at taking screen passes to the house. If your QB is a bye-week casualty, Fitzpatrick is a great replacement. The Titans allow over 20 points to quarterbacks each week, the lowest point total for any QB against this defense was Matt Schaub going for 15.88 points.

13th Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck has been averaging about 10 points per game to this point, but the Bills represent a unique opportunity for Hasselbeck to start against the best fantasy defense for opposing quarterbacks (the Bills allow over 22 points per game to opposing QBs). I think you could easily anticipate Hasselbeck with 275 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1-2 interceptions. That's around 17 points depending on your scoring settings, so he's a great add in deeper leagues. I love the way Kenny Britt and Hasselbeck play together.

Running Backs:

3rd C.J. Spiller - I'm going to throw my support behind Spiller this week. He has been extremely and unbelievably productive whenever he has touched the ball. The Spiller-Jackson dilemma looks like it will be resolved in the short term with a 2 series on, 2 series off system for each player. As long as both players are extremely productive, this system will last. I believe that C.J. Spiller, who is boasting a 7.6 YPC on 60 carries (I wouldn't be surprised if that weren't approaching a record of some sort) is going to be immensely productive with the 15-20 touches he should get each game in the run-happy offense. It should be easy for Spiller to breach 100 yards and 1 touchdown against this Tennessee defense. Easy. 

10th Chris Johnson - I would go higher on Johnson if it weren't for his spotty performance all season. There are weeks when you can play Johnson confidently. I traded Shonn Greene for Chris Johnson a few weeks ago, and I played him last week against the Steelers. The Steelers haven't been great all season against the run. Alternatively, I sat him the week before against the Vikings, because they are excellent against the run. We're going to figure this guy out, and this week should be easy for him. 

15th Fred Jackson - There are a lot of reasons that I have Jackson listed lower than Spiller. The most important reason is that Jackson sustained a bigger injury and is much older than Spiller. Yes, there is definitely tread on the tires, but Jackson just doesn't have the explosion that Spiller does. Every single time Spiller touches the ball he could score a touchdown. I just don't have the same confidence in his ability to perform excellently with 15 touches a game. 

Wide Receivers:

5th Kenny Britt - Britt won me over last week against the Steelers. The Titans are suddenly stacked at receiver compared to most teams in the NFL and Matt Hasselbeck loves throwing to a healthy Kenny Britt. Odds are that Britt sees 10-15 targets this week as this offense tries to keep up with the Bills offense. It definitely helps that the Bills have allowed 11 touchdowns to receivers already this season with nearly 200 yards per game. If you own Britt, he's a starter.

12th Stevie Johnson - Johnson has been about as good at Ryan Fitzpatrick all season. Given that Fitzpatrick should have a great game against the Titans. The only exception to this trend was the game against NE when Scott Chandler caught all the touchdown passes and Donald Jones broke a long one. You have to like Johnson's chances this week.

31st Donald Jones - With Fitzpatrick scoring big, Donald Jones should have a nice game.

40th Kendall Wright - Wright has been improving as the year has progressed. I think his raw talent plays better against the Bills than Washington's routes.

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