Wednesday, October 17, 2012

W7 Fantasy Preview: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Week 7 Previews

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers - Thursday Night


The Thursday Night game always seems to disappoint from a fantasy standpoint. It was just last week that I started both Rashard Mendenhall and Antonio Brown to end up with a devastating 3 point loss. Naturally C.J. Spiller was happily sitting on the bench...right next to Shonn Greene. It was a tough week. Things like that happen all the time in fantasy; the point is that Thursday Night games are the things nightmares are made of. This game should be a nice 17-13 style slug-fest between two of the most run-heavy teams with game-manager quarterbacks and strong defenses. Any prediction to the contrary would be misinformed. I'm not saying it won't be high scoring (just look at the way the Giants demolished the 49ers last week), but the odds are stacked against it.

Fantasy Outlook: Meager


24th Alex Smith - Smith had a miserable game against the Giants. Secretly we were all probably wondering when "Old Alex" would come back out to play, but I think the 49ers should get things back in order this week, at least when compared to last week. Smith has been scoring right at the opponent's average allowed points for quarterbacks each week, so with the Seahawks allowing a superior 11.26 PPG you can't expect much from Smith.

25th Russell Wilson - Despite his great game against the Patriots, Wilson is ranked as the second worst starting QB in fantasy this week. I loved the guy coming into the season, but I think Matt Flynn is the better option at QB this week. That being said, neither one of them would rank very high against a 49ers defense that allows and average of 12.56 PPG to opposing QBs. I wouldn't bank on Wilson reaching that number.

Running Backs:

12th Marshawn Lynch - Lynch it ranked much higher than all of my previous running backs facing the 49ers because of his history and what the Giants did last week. You can bet that Pete Carroll is going to watch as much tape of that Giants game as he possibly can and incorporate whatever pieces he can into the offense. He might not have the quarterback or receivers that the Giants have, but he definitely has the defense and the power runner. Lynch was the one man who breached the 49ers defense last season, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and bet he can play admirably this week. Not great; admirably.

21st Frank Gore - Gore does not get the same vote of confidence that Lynch does despite the fact that both defenses have the exact same points allowed per game (9.73 each). Frank Gore has been good this season, but the odds are definitely stacked against him this game. The Giants laid out a plan for how to stop this 49ers rushing attack, and I think the Seahawks have a strong enough defense to make use of the game tape. Gore will get his carries, but running backs haven't been beating this Seahawks defense.

Wide Receivers:

35th Sidney Rice - Rice is still a great player, and he seems like he's healthy for the first time in years. That being said, Russell Wilson is not willing (or allowed, perhaps) to throw the ball into dangerous situations like Favre would for Rice. No matter how you cut that, and these policies are certainly helping the Seahawks win big games, it means reduced production and extreme inconsistency from Rice. It's hard to get behind a receiver with only 40 points through six games.

37th Michael Crabtree - It's a mystery whether Crabtree would have grown into an elite NFL receiver on a different team, but that is neither here nor there. The 49ers have far too many receiving options for Crabtree to be a reliable option. He has basically the exact same number of fantasy points through six weeks as Rice does.

Tight Ends:

Vernon Davis - Vernon Davis is the second highest scoring tight end this season with approximately 10 points per week. The Seattle defense is neither especially good nor especially bad against opposing tight ends.

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