Monday, October 8, 2012

Post Week 5 Waiver Wire Wednesday

Week 6 seemed to be a very low scoring week. Sure, there were some huge performances from guys like Victor Cruz and Ahmad Bradshaw, but it was largely ho-hum from a fantasy perspective. A lot of big starting players are going to be sitting out in week 6 when the Panthers, Bears, Jaguars, and Saints have their week off. If you need a replacement player, look no further than this edition of Waiver Wire Wednesday. The last two weeks provided a number of advancements to this post, including the three tiered rankings and availability percentages from Yahoo!. If you see anything that doesn't make sense, look here for an explanation about the rankings and here for any other questions. If you don't find what you need, feel free to leave a comment.

Looking for past editions? Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, and Week 4.

These predictions will utilize the First Quarter Defensive Rankings to help you make the best decision possible.


N.W.A. Ryan Fitzpatrick [56%] @ ARI - Ryan Fitzpatrick has been playing well this season, but he can't make it happen against good defenses. I don't know how much is because of Fitzpatrick and how much is the lack of serious receivers, but that's the history. The Cardinals have been better against opposing quarterbacks than the 49ers so far this season. I wouldn't hold my breathe on this guy.

N.W.A. Alex Smith [51%] vs NYG - Alex Smith performed extremely well against the Bills in week 5, and the Giants have been allowing a good number of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The 49ers offensive line is excellent, so the Giants pass rush will have much more trouble than they have most weeks. I'm not ready to jump on the Alex Smith bandwagon after only one great game, but this NYG secondary isn't very good.

D.N.A. Carson Palmer [45%] @ ATL - The Falcons have shut down every quarterback they've come across. There is almost no chance for Carson Palmer to buck this trend. Don't add him this week.

N.W.A. Josh Freeman [40%] vs KC - While Freeman has only been averaging about 10 fantasy points per game, he could be used in a pinch against this Kansas City team. I don't know what happened this week against the Ravens, but the Chiefs had been one of the worst teams against opposing quarterbacks. Odds are that the Ravens game was an exception. I'd still rather start Fitzpatrick or Smith.

N.W.A. Christian Ponder [28%] @ WAS - The Redskins are no good against opposing quarterbacks. While Matt Ryan had some early trouble, he ended up with a solid night overall. Ponder has a nice habit of running for a few extra points each game, so look for him to fill in if you can't get someone better.

W.A. Kevin Kolb [24%] vs BUF - Kevin Kolb takes a lot of shit (excuse my French) for things that he can't control. The best quarterbacks in the NFL can't have good games when they are being sacked 7 times a night. Even through all of this, Kolb has a 7:2 touchdown to interception ratio. The Bills defense is bad this season (they made Sanchez and Smith look like Rodgers and Brees), so Kolb should be a good fill in. I'm going to give him a vote of confidence this week.

D.N.A. Sam Bradford [20%] @ MIA - The Dolphins have been extremely tough against opposing quarterbacks so far this season, so Bradford likely won't be a good choice this week. Danny Amendola is going to be gone for a long long time.

N.W.A. Brandon Weeden [7%] vs CIN - In the very deepest of leagues, Brandon Weeden could work as a bye week fill in with his matchup against the Bengals. While Ryan Tannehill had difficulty piercing this defense, Weeden has a different set of weapons and a power running game to help open up this defense a little more.

Running Backs:

N.W.A. The Starting Cardinals Running Back come Sunday [2% or lower] vs BUF - The Bills are terrible against the run, so starting whomever is going to end up getting the 15 or so carries against this team is a great play. If Ryan Williams hadn't been injured he would be a good play here, but as it is you'll just have to wait until Satruday night or Sunday morning to make this decision.

W.A. Jacquizz Rodgers [48%] vs OAK - This isn't a strong plug, but the Raiders are really bad against running backs. This game should be a blow out (but how often do those predictions really come true?) meaning that this backup running back should be anchoring the Falcons for the better part of the second half.

D.N.A. Shaun Draugn [16%] @ TB - There will be games when Draugn is valuable as a bye week filler, but this is not one of those weeks. The Bucs have been solid against the run, so you're best off finding someone else to play if you absolutely have to have someone off waivers.

W.A. LeGarrette Blount [15%] vs KC - I have to believe that the Buccaneers are going to work back towards the RBBC we anticipated heading into the season. Doug Martin has been completely ineffective so far this season (most rookies are), so grabbing Blount now before the Chiefs come to town is a good idea if you can swing it.

N.W.A. Joique Bell [11%] @ PHI - Bell is more of a receiver than a running back, but he has the opportunity to score you a few points if you need him to. I can't really outline how the Lions use this guy, because I don't really get it, but he does have a good chance of not leaving you with a goose egg.

D.N.A. David Wilson [17%] @ SF - He had a few lucky plays Sunday against the lowly Browns, but don't expect that to continue. On a different note, if you're still holding on to Andre Brown you can lose him.

Wide Receivers:

W.A. Andre Roberts [58%] vs BUF - After facing a stiff pass defense in Week 5, the Rams get something of an easy matchup against the Bills. This team is quite bad against the pass and Kolb loves to throw to Andre Roberts. If you need a wide receiver, look for this guy. He's one of the top scorers this season.

N.W.A. Robert Meachem [42%] vs DEN - This guy will be heavily targeted after having his first breakout game of the season against the Saints. Keep in mind that the Saints have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and that Meachem had done absolutely nothing up to this point. If you have empty space on your bench (from dropping Amendola, perhaps) you could look towards Meachem. I'm leaving him on waivers, though.

N.W.A. Josh Gordon [2%] vs CIN - Gordon had his first big game after being taken by the Browns in the supplemental draft. I wrote a little about him at the time, but there are just so many different receivers around that it's tough to pin any one down as a start. Well this guy probably won't be a star this year. The Brandon Weeden attack just isn't powerful enough. If you are going to play him though, this is as good a week as any. The Bengals do not have an impressive secondary thanks to a plethora of injuries. Don't waste a waiver slot on him, though.

D.N.A. Santana Moss [33%] vs MIN - There are a lot of reasons not to pick up Santana Moss. He hasn't done anything before today and the Vikings are an extremely though defense.

W.A. Donnie Avery [21%] @ NYJ - We still need to see how the Texans do against this Revis-less defense, but I think Avery would be a great grab for someone in need of a receiver this week. Reggie Wayne isn't going to have 200+ receiving yards every game.

W.A. Davone Bess [32%] vs STL - Davone Bess is among the top 20 WR in receiving yardage this season with 346 over 5 games. Unfortunately, he hasn't scored any touchdowns to this point. Now I love to target players with big yardage totals and low touchdowns early in the season, because it's extremely difficult to keep up that pace. What are the odds that Bess ends the season with over 1,000 yards and no touchdowns? Virtually nonexistent. Pick him up now before he starts scoring. 

W.A. Jeremy Kerley [30%] vs IND - The Jets have no starting receivers left, so Kerley is turning into one of Mark Sanchez's favorite receivers. Admittedly that doesn't mean a whole lot, but he's getting plenty of targets in think lackluster offense. If you need serious receiver help you could use him. 

Tight Ends:

W.A. Jared Cook [49%] vs PIT - The Steelers aren't an ideal matchup, but Cook has been one of the few consistent tight ends in fantasy football this season. I think he would be worth picking up off waivers for anyone in serious need of a tight end.

N.W.A. Brandon Myers [5%] @ ATL - Despite the matchup, Myers might be one of the best waiver wire tight ends for people in deep leagues. Most of the consistent guys are already rostered; Myers has enough points in 4 weeks (22.8, all yardage) to warrant a chance for one game.

D.N.A. Dwayne Allen [2%] @ NYJ - The spectacular performance that Allen displayed against the Packers is unlikely to be repeated for the rest of this season. Don't pull your hair out; don't play him.


  1. What about alex green with benson out for 8 weeks? and jahvid best may be coming back week 7 or 8 worth a stash?
    Also kendall hunter hast 11 and 8 points last two weeks (standard), what you think about him?

    1. I like Alex Green but I don't love him. I think he's definitely worth giving a shot because in the NFL you never know what running back is going to break out. I didn't have the information on Benson before I wrote the article.

      I've less excited about Best, but if you have the bench space he could be worth it. Mikel LeShoure could be well entrenched in the offense by that time.

      Hunter has been playing against terrible defenses over the last few weeks. In the long term he's never a guy I would play unless Gore goes down.

  2. What about Vick Ballard against a poor Jets run defense? Not a solid waiver wire pick-up for the week?