Sunday, October 7, 2012

AFC East Defensive Matchups

**NOTE: These are match-up ratings, not defensive ratings. A rating of 1st means that they are an amazing match-up while a rating of 32nd means they are the worst match-up. 

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6. Buffalo Bills Defense:
6th Against the Pass [20.44 PPG]: The Bills have been just plain bad against the pass. This secondary made Sanchez and Weeden look like NFL caliber QBs...and that's saying something. Any quarterback can play against the Bills for the time being.
4th Against the Run [25.20 PPG]: The Bills were absolutely horrendous against the run last week against the Patriots. The Bills hadn't been so bad against the run before this week, but they definitely hadn't been good. The 49ers will show us whether this is going to be a trend or a one-week wonder.
5th Against Receivers [28.10 PPG]: Similar to their pass defense, the Bills have been remarkably ineffective against wide receivers. This is somewhat surprising given the fact that their defensive backs aren't especially bad, but something about this revamped defense just isn't getting the job done.
18th Against Tight Ends [7.50 PPG]: This is the kind of ranking that says absolutely nothing. 7.50 PPG is middle of the pack. Don't seek them out or avoid them.

12. New York Jets Defense:
24th Against the Pass [14.42 PPG]: The Jets were very good against the pass, but with Revis out for the season this will likely change. The Jets were absolutely demolished in their game against the 49ers, so I wouldn't worry too much about playing QBs against this team. The fear here is that the Jets offense is so bad that the opposing offense never needs to pass.
7th Against the Run [24.40 PPG]: The Jets are giving up well over 4 yards per carry, and opposing offenses are taking advantage of it. The Jets are being punished by more than 30 rushes per game because their offense simply can't keep up or play ball control football. They are giving up 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game. They have only been able to stop the Steelers to this point...and the Dwyer + Redman attack was one of the worst in the NFL.
25th Against Receivers [18.75 PPG]: Here is one place where the loss of Revis will be especially felt. Cromartie is a solid CB1, but he was an excellent CB2. With him moving over into the top corner position, passing yards to receivers should likewise increase. The Jets play Houston this week, so we'll see how much open space Andre Johnson sees with Revis Island sunk for the year.
20th Against Tight Ends [7.38 PPG]: As with most of these TE rankings, there's not a whole lot to read into this number. Just go with your studs.

13. New England Patriots Defense:
9th Against the Pass [19.14 PPG]: The Patriots are still not especially good against the pass. Their offense forces their opponents to pass, but the defense just can't keep up. They definitely aren't as bad as last season, but you should still be confident playing any competent QB against this team.
25th Against the Run [12.45 PPG]: The Patriots have been extremely successful against the run this season, allowing just barely over 3 YPC this season. Whenever you can avoid this defense, do it.
9th Against Receivers [25.75 PPG]: The Patriots always manage to have the highest yardage receiver, but they're still giving up big points to any receiver who gets targets. They aren't especially good against deep or slot receivers. We'll have more knowledge about who does best as the season goes forward. They have the ability to shut down top receivers on occasion.
2nd Against Tight Ends [10.88 PPG]: The Pats have a terrible track record with tight ends. Dennis Pitta and Scott Chandler thrashed them. Good tight ends should be good plays.

16. Miami Dolphins Defense:
17th Against the Pass [16.54 PPG]: The Dolphins have been surprising stout against opposing QBs, but the opposition hasn't been very tough. This number is going to start going the other way if they keep giving up 300+ passing yards per game. Despite the low number here, don't be afraid to play QBs against them.
18th Against the Run [14.23 PPG]: The Dolphins are excellent against the run. They are allowing fewer than 3 YPC, so you really shouldn't need much more convincing than that. The one exception would be a RB that catches a lot of passes. The Dolphins have allowed nearly as many receiving yards to running backs (176 yards on 18 receptions) as they have rushing yards (213 yards on 88 carries).
6th Against Receivers [27.40 PPG]: The Dolphins aren't very good against wide receivers, so feel confident playing most receivers against them. The Dolphins have been very consistent about giving up huge yardage to opposing WR1s (this is why A.J. Green is my top receiver for week 5).
19th Against Tight Ends [7.43 PPG]: Like most of these numbers, this doesn't tell you much of anything. Given how bad they are at most passing categories, don't hesitate to play tight ends against the Dolphins.

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