Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Week 4: Wide Receiver Rankings

Week 4 Wide Receiver Rankings

Wide Receivers are probably the second most difficult group to predict of the big-4 because it is hard to know which of the multiple receivers on a team is going to catch the touchdown. That being said, my rankings for last week were quite successful and consistent and I look forward to another good week from this position.

1. Calvin Johnson vs MIN - Maybe Shaun Hill is the guy Megatron needs throwing the ball to him. More than likely, the SF and STL defenses just did a great job bracketing him. The Minnesota team has trouble in the secondary and Calvin Johnson is still the best receiver in the game.

2. Vincent Jackson vs WAS - I put A.J. Green first overall last week because of the matchup against Washington. This week Vincent Jackson scoots all the way up to second against this unit. This might be bold, but Washington really is that bad at this point in the year, and Jackson has been pretty consistent for the Bucs.

3. Victor Cruz @ PHI - I think Cruz more than Nicks has the tools to have a big game against the Eagles. Cruz plays much better as a WR2 for the Giants than the primary guy.

4. Percy Harvin @ DET - You have to love this matchup for Harvin. 10 catches, 120 yards and a touchdown through the air should be the bar for this week. Anything less than 18 points would be a disappointment to me.

5. Andre Johnson vs TEN - This pick scares me because the Texans could honestly just run the ball 100 times and win this game with 50 minutes of possession...but I think this provides a good opportunity for Johnson to run off the play action and get some big gains off double moves. The Texans can afford to run a max-protect with only one receiver, one TE and one RB going out to catch passes. The entire Titans defense will be prepped to stop the run.

6. Julio Jones vs CAR - The question about who is going to do better, Roddy White or Julio Jones is becoming much more clear. If I'm wrong I'll have to rethink my predicting strategy, but this should be a huge game for Jones by my estimation. The Panthers are better against the possession receiver than the deep guy.

7. Brandon Marshall @ DAL - I know we have been burned for the last two weeks by Marshall, but he is a great receiver. I don't know what has been going on, but I have to believe it is just a dry spell. The Dallas corners will have some issues holding him back as long as Cutler stops throwing the damn ball to the opposing defense. 

8. Wes Welker @ BUF - In much the same way I believe Julio Jones will be the guy this week for the Falcons, the Bills have excellent safeties, meaning Welker should get more touches than someone like Brandon Lloyd. The Bills also aren't the best tackling team in the NFL.

9. Dwayne Bowe vs SD - He didn't live up to expectations last week like he did in week two (where I predicted he would finish 5th despite the consensus being around 22nd), but you still ahve to like the looks he gets from Cassel. Bowe is a great route runner with a bad attitude. He is still a good play this week against the mediocre/bad SD defense.

10. Eric Decker vs OAK - There seems to be no rhyme or reason about which Broncos receiver will see more Manning passes, but I don't believe it will matter much this week against Oakland. If Decker doesn't perform this week I'm going to relegate him to good-defense-duty.

11. Larry Fitzgerald vs MIA - He's alive! He could be higher here, but I just don't see the Cardinals getting him the ball so many times every game. 100 yards and a touchdown is slightly optimistic from my viewpoint, so I like him here.

12. A.J. Green @ JAX - Full disclosure, I will always believe that Derek Cox is better than he really is. I got to talk to him about getting drafted by the Jaguars back in my freshman year at college (we both went to William and Mary), and he is actually a really great cover guy. He is going to hold A.J. Green down to about 80 yards and a touchdown. I fully expect him to get an interception this week. Also, he has intercepted a pass from Peyton Manning and I, being the little girl that I am sometimes, can't believe that I know someone who caught an interception off one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.

13. Demaryius Thomas vs OAK - Again, both Decker and Thomas should have great games against the Raiders. I was tempted to flip them because Thomas is the more physically gifted guy and that should pay dividends this weekend...but I just love how Decker runs his routes. They are both great plays.

14. Jeremy Maclin vs NYG - I really like the way Maclin has been playing this year. I really hate the way Maclin has been injured this year. Oh well, when he plays he should be good to start. Just hope he injures his hip in the second half.

15. Hakeem Nicks @ PHI - I have to worry a little about the injury situation and the matchup against the Eagles' secondary, but Nicks is a great physical receiver. Eli Manning looks for him in the clutch, so I like him to have a solid 4th quarter. I just don't know what we'll get for the first three.

16. Roddy White vs CAR - You have to love the attitude Roddy had coming into this season. He seems like a class act and a wonderful team player. He's also a great football player and has excellent rapport with Matt Ryan. The Carolina defense should roll over for him this week.

17. Dez Bryant vs CHI - This is my last attempt at predicting success from Bryant. He is truly physically gifted and if he put half the effort he puts into going to jail into running his routes he would be a top receiver. As it is he is just a disappointment. I really believe he wants to be a good person, so this game at home against Chicago is his chance to prove it to me.

18. Greg Jennings vs NO - The Packers receivers have all but disappeared this season. Jennings should be in line for a touchdown and 6-7 catches this game against New Orleans. I think he will be fully healed and ready to go, but Rodgers needs to start playing better (coughcoughoffensivelinecough).

19. Malcom Floyd @ KC - I didn't believe in Meachem going into the season and he's been proving me correct so far. Floyd is the better target for Rivers thusfar, but Rivers is having trouble getting the ball to his own guys and away from defenders. Floyd is still a solid play this week against KC.

20. Danny Amendola vs SEA - If the Seattle D-line gets to Bradford the way they got to Rodgers, Amendola is going to have a pretty good game. He is the quick read guy, but how long can Bradford stay healthy if he gets hit like Rodgers did?

21. Steve Smith @ ATl - I just traded for Smith and plan on starting him this week, but top receivers have been having a difficult time against the Falcons defense. I'm not quite sure what the Falcons did to become so successful against the pass, but they managed something and Smith will probably pay for it this week.

22. Marques Colston @ GB - I think the injury to Colston is worse than the Saints are letting on, but he should be slowly healing. In the opener last season he was having a big game before being injured and fumbling the ball. I hope for moderate success from him this week, but he has proven me wrong before this season.

23. Stevie Johnson vs NE - I think Fitzpatrick is going to spread the ball around some this game. The top receiver is having a tough time against the Patriots this season, but you definitely can't bench Johnson in most leagues.

My Sleeper for this week is deep. Donald Jones of the Buffalo Bills. I love the Patriots matchup for him with the RB injury situation. Let me know if you start him...I probably will in at least one league where I have multiple BYE week receivers.

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