Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Week 4 Player Rankings

In week 3, Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green gave me the amazing performances I expected from them, Mikel LeShoure beat Kevin Smith by WAY more than I'd anticipated while Run-DMC had the big game I predicted against the Steelers, and Michael Vick finished with fewer fantasy points than Gabbert, Luck or Dalton. I'm most proud of calling Big Ben in the top-6 and he even outperformed that.

I also made some big mistakes last week. Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo didn't show up for their games the way they should have, Ryan Mathews was sidelined by the horrendous San Diego defense (although the nearly 100 yards in limited action is extremely promising), while Brandon Marshall and Jordy Nelson failed to live up to expectations. All in all, though, it was a pretty good week-3 for my rankings.

This week I am going to supplement these bland, numerical rankings with reasons behind my rankings in individualized position posts. How will you know if you disagree with me without my reasoning? The positional explanations are linked in each of the position headings. Here are the past rankings from Week 1, Week 2, and Week 3, as well as the Waiver Wire Wednesday report for week 3. As always, ask any questions you have. I happily answer them all.


Over 18 Fantasy Points (Players 1-6):
  1. Matt Ryan vs CAR
  2. Aaron Rodgers vs NO
  3. Tom Brady @ BUF
  4. Drew Brees @ GB
  5. Peyton Manning vs OAK
  6. Robert Griffin III @ TB
Between 15 and 18 Fantasy Points (7-17):
  1. Cam Newton @ ATL
  2. Joe Flacco vs CLE
  3. Andy Dalton @ JAX
  4. Ryan Fitzpatrick vs NE
  5. Josh Freeman vs WAS
  6. Tony Romo vs CHI
  7. Christian Ponder @ DET
  8. Michael Vick vs NYG
  9. Blaine Gabbert vs CIN
  10. Eli Manning @ PHI
  11. Philip Rivers @ KC
Below 15 Fantasy Points (Players 18-21):
  1. Carson Palmer @ DEN
  2. Alex Smith @ NYJ
  3. Shaun Hill vs MIN
  4. Jay Cutler @ DAL

Running Backs:

Over 16 Fantasy Points (Players 1-6):
  1. Arian Foster vs TEN
  2. Maurice Jones-Drew vs CIN
  3. Ryan Mathews @ KC
  4. Ray Rice vs CLE
  5. Marshawn Lynch @ STL
  6. Darren McFadden @ DEN
Between 12 and 16 Fantasy Points (Players 7-23):
  1. LeSean McCoy vs NYG
  2. Jamaal Charles vs SD
  3. Adrian Peterson @ DET
  4. Doug Martin vs WAS
  5. Cedric Benson vs NO
  6. Ben Tate vsTEN
  7. Mikel LeShoure vs MIN
  8. Alfred Morris @ TB
  9. DeMarco Murray vs CHI
  10. Trent Richardson @ BAL
  11. Willis McGahee vs OAK
  12. BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ JAX
  13. Frank Gore vs NYJ
  14. Michael Turner vs CAR
  15. Pierre Thomas @ GB
  16. Reggie Bush @ ARI
  17. Andre Brown @ PHI
Between 8 and 12 Fantasy Points (Players 24-33):
  1. DeAngelo Williams @ ATL
  2. Michael Bush @ DAL
  3. Chris Johnson @ HOU
  4. Jonathan Stewart @ ATL
  5. Steven Jackson vs SEA
  6. Tashard Choice vs NE (Unless Fred Jackson is given an open workload)
  7. Ahmad Bradshaw @ PHI
  8. Ryan Williams vs MIA
  9. Darren Sproles @ GB
  10. Justin Forsett vs TEN

Wide Receivers:

Over 16 Fantasy Points (Players 1-9):
  1. Calvin Johnson vs MIN
  2. Vincent Jackson vs WAS
  3. Victor Cruz @ PHI
  4. Percy Harvin @ DET
  5. Andre Johnson vs TEN
  6. Julio Jones vs CAR
  7. Brandon Marshall @ DAL
  8. Wes Welker @ BUF
  9. Dwayne Bowe vs SD
Between 14 and 16 Points (Players 10-23):
  1. Eric Decker vs OAK
  2. Larry Fitzgerald vs MIA
  3. A.J. Green @ JAX
  4. Demaryius Thomas vs OAK
  5. Jeremy Maclin vs NYG
  6. Hakeem Nicks @ PHI
  7. Roddy White vs CAR
  8. Dez Bryant vs CHI
  9. Greg Jennings vs NO
  10. Malcom Floyd @ KC
  11. Danny Amendola vs SEA
  12. Steve Smith @ ATL
  13. Marques Colston @ GB
  14. Stevie Johnson vs NE
Between 12 and 14 Points (Players 24-35):
  1. Jordy Nelson vs NO
  2. Andre Roberts vs MIA
  3. Pierre Garcon @ TB
  4. Sydney Rice @ STL
  5. Torrey Smith vs CLE
  6. Denarius Moore @ DEN
  7. Donald Jones vs NE
  8. Santonio Holmes vs SF
  9. Mike Williams vs WAS
  10. DeSean Jackson vs NYG
  11. Miles Austin vs CHI
  12. Anquan Boldin vs CLE
Under 12 Points (Players 36-43):
  1. Kevin Walter vs TEN
  2. Cecil Shorts vs CIN
  3. Kenny Britt @ HOU
  4. Brandon LaFell @ ATL
  5. Jerome Simpson @ DET
  6. Justin Blackmon vs CIN
  7. Brandon Lloyd @ BUF
  8. Andrew Hawkins @ JAX

Tight Ends:

Just one short grouping:
  1. Rob Gronkowski @ BUF
  2. Jimmy Graham @ GB
  3. Tony Gonzalez vs CAR
  4. Martellus Bennett @ PHI
  5. Vernon Davis @ NYJ
  6. Kyle Rudolph @ DET
  7. Jermichael Finley vs NO
  8. Brandon Pettigrew vs MIN
  9. Jermaine Gresham @ JAX
  10. Fred Davis @ TB
  11. Brent Celek vs NYG
  12. Antonio Gates vs KC
  13. Jared Cook @ HOU
  14. Dennis Pitta vs CLE
  15. Owen Daniels vs TEN


  1. Did you miss Ridley, or is he really worse than #33?

    1. His only truly good game was against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. I really don't think he has the value everyone else does, but he can definitely prove me wrong. His lack of production against the Ravens (who are not really an elite run defense) just proved to me that the Pats will only use him when it is convenient. Belicheck does not feel like he owes him carries.

    2. Those are all valid points, but to the extent that he's worse than #33? That seems overcompensating. By your logic you'd rather start CJ2K vs HOU than Ridley vs BUF?

    3. I know that CJ is going to get touches regardless of how he and the Oline plays. I'm more apt to play a guy who will touch the ball 20 times than someone who might only get 10 touches just based on the chance that something good happens.

      It might be an extreme thought in this case, but I just don't see the value of Ridley at this point. I'm sure a lot of other experts would disagree with me. No one is perfect in fantasy football predictions.

  2. No Matt Schaub on the QB rankings? Playing Tenn I thought he would be up there...

    1. My worry is that the Texans will only pass the ball 15-20 times this game and not need to throw a bunch of touchdowns. Things were different against Denver, but he could absolutely have a good game if they throw short passes to RBs for touchdowns. It's definitely risky.

    2. Thing is, my other QB is Vick...I am very worried about him and really have no idea which one to go with.

  3. I need to decide at some point whether to start Brown or Bradshaw. I've heard bradshaw is starting, but I've seen a few people saying that Brown will have a better game. What's your reasoning for ranking Brown above Bradshaw? Also thanks for doing this!

    1. If you click on the category heading Running Backs you can see reasonings behind every ranking.

      Speaking specifically to your question, I think they will both be good, but Andre Brown might legitimately be the better running back with Bradshaw coming off of injury. Playing Brown is a much bigger risk than playing Bradshaw, so make your decision based on how much consistency vs big-game potential you need.

  4. Demaryius Thomas will be a stud this week.

    1. I don't doubt that. Against the Raiders both receivers (Decker and Thomas) should be great. I explained a little better in the Wide Receivers section about why I put one over the other.

  5. Which QB do you think has the greatest potential to break out this week(4) and do well in their respective match-ups? I'm hesitant to put Newton ahead of Flacco after his pouty towel masquerade last week.

    1. Newton ALWAYS has the bigger potential in standard leagues. On any given day he could have 2 rushing touchdowns and 100 rushing yards to go with 250 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns. Those numbers are huge.

      The pouty towel is getting really old from a spectator standpoint. That being said, I don't like playing guys on Thursday night, so I would probably go with Newton.