Monday, September 24, 2012

Post Week 3: Waiver Wire Wednesday

I'm going to get this edition out early. If you want to see my track record, check out Week 1 and Week 2.

Just like last week I'm going to break down prospects into three different categories: Waiver Acquisition (W.A.), Non-Waiver Acquisition (N.W.A.), and Do Not Add (D.N.A.). If those categories don't make sense to you, check out the explanation here.

The new addition this week is the owned percentages from Yahoo!. It will be listed after the player in italics, and the upcoming opponent will also be listed because that impacts whether I will list the player as W.A. or N.W.A. Enjoy!


D.N.A. Ramses Barden - WR [12%] @ PHI - Unless Hakeem Nicks is out again, Ramses Barden will go back to fantasy anonymity after this game. It might be tempting to believe that Barden will be the next Cruz, but I just don't see Barden producing without significant targets. Tampa Bay was a unique situation that will be difficult to replicate.

D.N.A. Andre Brown - RB [64%] @ PHI - If Bradshaw is out, Andre Brown is a must start. Unfortunately for Brown and his owners, Ahmad Bradshaw has been cleared for practice and will probably not play a major role in the game on Sunday. At this point dropping Brown is not advisable, simply based on Bradshaw's history of injury, but you don't need to put in a waiver claim if you haven't already used him.

D.N.A. Greg Olsen - TE [51%] @ ATL - The Panthers don't know how they want to use Olsen yet, but I think I'm more likely to release him from my team that add him if I can help it. The significant lack of touchdown production is disconcerting and should have been expected considering that the rushing game is the strength of this Panthers offense. He just isn't going to get the goal-line receptions that a TE like Heath Miller gets. If you are desperate for a tight end you could do a lot worse than Olsen, but someone like Jared Cook or Heath Miller are looking to be more consistent options with higher upside.

N.W.A. Brandon LaFell - WR [59%] @ ATL - Brandon LaFell let plenty of owners down in week 3, but odds are this was a fluke. Cam Newton was terrible this week, so we shouldn't really expect any of his receivers to play well. LaFell is still probably worthy of a roster spot, but if he is still on waivers you shouldn't bother adding him before Wednesday. The game against Atlanta is going to be a tough one for the Panthers, but I think he should be a contributor (think 6-10 points) because of how horrendous the Panthers defense is. They are going to have to pass the ball like crazy to keep up with the Falcons.

D.N.A. Kalil Bell - RB [0%] @ DAL - Bell played moderately well last season when Forte went down and then got far more touches than anyone would have expected playing behind Michael Bush. Bell definitely isn't worth an add at this point, but he does put a hard ceiling on Bush's value for the foreseeable future.

D.N.A. Alshon Jeffery - WR [36%] @ DAL - Jeffery is right between valuable and invaluable in fantasy. He definitely isn't worth starting with the way Jay Cutler is playing, but he seems to be consistent enough to warrant a bench spot in deep leagues. I doubt he will become a consistent contributor over the next few weeks, but he will certainly have a few good games throughout the season.

D.N.A. Tashard Choice - WR [10%] vs NE - My guess here is that 10% of people exist in leagues that don't lock players on waivers once they play, because I doubt that Choice was owned in 10% of leagues before C.J. Spiller got injured. Regardless, with Fred Jackson highly questionable for week 4, you might consider pulling Choice off waivers. I wouldn't necessarily do that. The Patriots defense is stout against the run and has been all season. If you pull him off waivers and Jackson or Spiller play, you're just wasting waiver priority and a bench spot. If anything, drop your defense or kicker for him so that you can hold on to a positional bench spot.

N.W.A. Donald Jones - WR [3%] vs NE - I have been surprised by how small a role Donald Jones has played in the offense to this point. My guess is that C.J. Spiller has been holding him back by being basically 100% of the Bills offense. Now that the run game is gone (their blocking scheme must be great since Tashard Choice racked up 80 yards), I anticipate the Fitzpatrick train to pick up steam until the weather turns in mid-November. 

N.W.A. Cecil Shorts - WR [2%] vs CIN - The Bengals defense has been playing as bad as any team in the league this season, and Shorts might be starting this week if Laurent Robinson is out for the game. I wouldn't go so far as to pick him up off waivers, but any starting receiver should be played against the Bengals this week. I would consider adding him and playing him for this one coming week. He likely won't be valuable in the long run.

N.W.A. T. Y. Hilton - WR [1%] on BYE - With Austin Collie likely out for the season, T.Y. Hilton might be this season's Victor Cruz. I am not a proponent of adding players off waivers who aren't going to help you this week (and he won't since the Colts have a bye this week), I think that adding him in the mid-week is an excellent idea. He could be a huge bust, but you aren't really giving anything up to get him. I like him more than Donnie Avery.

D.N.A. Jeremy Kerley - WR [11%] vs SF - Kerley has two solid games under his belt, but he just isn't my kind of player. He is averaging fewer than 3 receptions per game, meaning that you are going to end up with far fewer amazing games than you have disappointing games. Only add him in deep leagues or if you are desperate for WR help.

N.W.A. Bilal Powell - RB [3%] vs SF - The Jets are quickly losing patience with how ineffective their running game is, and Shonn Greene appears to be on the chopping block. Bilal Powell might be worth an add in the near future, but he definitely isn't going to produce well against the 49ers this weekend. He could end up starting somewhere down the road, but there is nothing certain here. We can't blame these rushing troubles on the offensive line, they are an elite unit, so we have to believe it is either Rex Ryan's blocking scheme or Shonn Greene. I think Ryan would blame Greene before he blames himself.

D.N.A. Daniel Thomas - RB [13%] @ ARI - Even if Reggie Bush isn't playing against the Cardinals, Thomas still isn't going to be a good play against the Cardinals defense. LeSean McCoy had enough trouble with the Cardinals to show that starting isn't going to net you a solid block of points. Also, Bush is probably going to play. He could be the Daryl Richardson of Week 4.

W.A. Kyle Rudolph - TE [39%] @ DET - If there was ever a time to add Kyle Rudolph, against the Lions is probably a great time. The Lions secondary is playing terribly while their offense continues to push forward. This presents Rudolph with a great opportunity to build on his two TD performance against the 49ers. I'd take him as a low-level waiver guy.

D.N.A. Shaun Hill - QB [1%] vs MIN - The Lions defense is nearly as bad as it was during their 0-16 season, but at least their offense is vastly improved. Hill is a serviceable or better backup and if Stafford is out for a significant amount of time he should play well. The Titans defense is pretty terrible, but Hill shouldn't be bad against the Vikings. The Lions have a great group of receivers and tight ends.

W.A. Mikel LeShoure - RB [59%] vs MIN - Unless you added LeShoure before last game you're going to have trouble getting a hold of him now. I had a number of people question me about adding him before the Titans game, and I had him ahead of Kevin Smith on my weekly running back rankings. That was also questioned. Now everyone wants a piece of this guy, and he should be your top waiver priority. There is absolutely no one you should go after ahead of him unless you have strange scoring or serious injuries.

D.N.A. Titus Young - WR [48%] vs MIN - I never bought into the Titus Young hype, but he finally had a big game. There is still no reason to add this guy. Given that 11.7 of his 16 points came on one Hail Mary, you really can't consider playing him. Do your best to trade him away if he carries any value in your league. If he is on waivers, don't consider adding him unless Burleson or Megatron get injured.

N.W.A. Nate Burleson - WR [25%] vs MIN - Burleson is finally looking like the player he has the potential to be, but he is still only a minor player in the grand scheme of the Lions offense. I think you can probably count on 50ish yards each game, but the touchdowns will be too sporadic to be valuable from a fantasy perspective. If you really need a bye-week fill in, Burleson should be a fine option against the Vikings.

N.W.A. Jake Locker - QB [38%] @ HOU - Locker is going to be a good play against bad defenses and a bad play against good defenses. This week at Houston will be one of the more difficult matchups he faces this week. He probably won't be a horrible start, but I highly doubt that he will be in the top-16 amongst QBs. If you aren't going to play him, don't bother wasting a roster spot on him.

N.W.A. Nate Washington [64%] @ HOU - While you might not end up playing Washington this week, he could be a valuable bye week asset over the next few weeks. Kenny Britt is still not playing up to his potential, and Washington seems to have a solid rapport with Locker. He definitely isn't worth a waiver add, but there are a few low level receivers (like DHB) who might be worth dropping for Washington.

N.W.A. Jared Cook - TE [52%] @ HOU - If you want to get your hands on Cook you're probably going to have to pull him off waivers. His big game against Detroit isn't going to become the norm, but he has the speed and agility to make big plays down the field on a relatively consistent basis. The upside is definitely there, and with the running game in shambles he should be a consistent play throughout the year.

W.A. Andy Dalton - QB [50%] @ JAX - Odds are that Dalton isn't going to have an amazing game against the Jaguars with Derek Cox back in the secondary, but he has had much more success than players like Jay Cutler and Jake Locker this season. It is hard not to add him over someone like Cutler, and he should be a decent play this week at Jacksonville. Andrew Hawkins makes him look better than he is, and the defense is so terrible that he is going to be involved in a shootout almost every week. Perhaps when they get healthy things will be different, but for now Dalton is a great play.

N.W.A. Andrew Hawkins - WR [25%] @ JAX - Hawkins is making his money on YAC, and that should continue against the Jaguars this week. I was worried about him heading into the game against Washington, but with 12 catches in 3 games he should be a solid play this week against the mediocre Jaguars pass defense.

D.N.A. Leonard Hankerson - WR [6%] @ TB - Hankerson just isn't that good. If he was going to be a big part of the Washington offense it would have been during Pierre Garcon's absence. He isn't really worth anything from a fantasy perspective at this point.

D.N.A. Damaris Johnson - WR [0%] vs NYG - Johnson was the one bright spot for the Eagles in an otherwise terrible game against the Cardinals. Unfortunately for Johnson, Maclin should be heading back to the lineup in Week 4 making Johnson practically useless. Don't add him unless you can afford to stash him and wait for another Eagles WR injury.

D.N.A. Ryan Williams - RB [36%] vs MIA - Even though Williams had a solid game against the Eagles, I highly doubt that he continues to have success this season. The Eagles game was a fluke on so many levels, so i wouldn't read too much into this Ryan Williams situation.

D.N.A. Kevin Kolb - QB [4%] vs MIA - Kevin Kolb has been consistent over the last few weeks and is unlikely to stumble against the Dolphins. He probably won't light up the scoreboard and is only worth an add if you are extremely desperate for a QB.

N.W.A. Andre Roberts - WR [6%] vs MIA - Roberts has been as consistent as any low-end wide receiver so far this year, but he is unlikely to really break out until the Cardinals offense drastically changes. He should have had about 30-40 more yards against the Eagles if Larry Fitzgerald hadn't been called for a block in the back. I highly doubt that Andre Roberts is going to lose you any games if you need 5-7 points, but he isn't good for much more than that at this point. I still like him in the long term.

N.W.A. Kevin Walter - WR [2%] vs TEN - Normally I would never advocate picking up Kevin Walter, much less playing him, but this game against Tennessee represents a unique opportunity for him to have a successful game. I would say only roll with him if you absolutely need him (say, for example, that you have Mike Wallace, Reggie Wayne, and Antonio Brown anchoring your receiving corps), but he could be an extremely sneaky play.

N.W.A. Brandon Stokley - WR [2%] vs DEN - The Broncos receivers have been more unpredictable than we could have imagined. Stokley is averaging just over 40 yards per game and has one touchdown on the season, and looks towards an amazing matchup against the Raiders pass defense. I still don't think you're going to win if you are counting on him for a big game and there is absolutely no reason to pick him up off waivers.

W.A. Heath Miller - TE [41%] on BYE - The Steelers are on bye, but Miller is looking to be one of the most consistent TEs in the league this year. With the absolutely miserable power running game for the Steelers, Miller has been getting plenty of looks in the red zone. If Mendenhall plays anything like he did last season, nothing is going to change on that front and Miller should be a solid play for the rest of the season. He doesn't carry the same big-yardage upside that some other tight ends do, but he should score points relatively consistently.

N.W.A. Julian Edelman - WR [4%] @ BUF - Wes Welker looked like himself against the Ravens on Sunday night, but Edelman was still a presence. No one really knows what is going on between the Patriots and Wes Welker, but Edelman is definitely taking a bigger role in the offense this season. He's not going to win you any games right now, but you won't be able to get a hold of him if something happens with Welker. I'd consider adding him now as wide receiver depth if you can afford the bench spot.

N.W.A. Jacoby Jones - WR [5%] vs CLE - Despite the fact that Torrey Smith had a great game on Sunday night, Jones has definitely been the more consistent of the two receivers. He is often drawing the third corner in coverage and is benefiting from playing a position between Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. I like his chances for another touchdown against the Browns, but he is definitely a risky play against such a poor offense. 

W.A. Dennis Pitta - TE [61%] vs CLE - Pitta should be a really solid play against the Browns this week if you can still grab him. He has been more consistent than any tight end for the Ravens over the last few years, which has kept his value down. Now might be the time to buy in if you didn't grab a top-end tight end in your draft.

5 comments:

  1. Would it be possible for you to list positions next to the players? It would make scanning the post much easier. Thanks!

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    1. I did that for you. Next week I'll put them into groups by position to make it even easier.

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  2. Great list! Thanks for taking the time.

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  3. Dude who would you play this week, Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush, Andrew Hawkins. 2 gota start.12 team ppr. Im thinking bush if he plays for sure but idk between hawkins and morris. Been loving your stuff btw keep it up!

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    1. Alfred Morris and Reggie Bush. I'm not a fan of flex WR unless they are elite.

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