Saturday, July 21, 2012

Ten Overvalued Players

Photo via US Presswire

There are a lot of perspectives and ratings on different players heading towards training camp, but it is time for me to weigh in on which players are far overvalued for their ADP heading towards training camp. These will almost certainly change as rosters get adjusted and depth charts are finally built (so we won't have to keep speculating on who will start in what system). This list will attempt to steer those who draft before training camp clear of some wasted draft picks. Drafting poorly might not be the absolute end of your fantasy season, but it certainly doesn't help your case.

Marshawn Lynch (ADP of 16.3) - This doesn't really count as overrated, since his arrest is pretty recent, but this is a warning to steer clear of him completely. He was already suspended once by the league for a previous DUI, and this second offense will likely carry a stiff penalty. Suspending Lynch for 6-8 games is probably the most likely scenario, which makes him a pretty terrible 2nd round pick. I don't need to go further, you understand.

Fred Jackson (ADP of 32.3) - We think Jackson will be the starter, but we don't really know that. I haven't heard much of anything from the Bills about how he has recovered from injury, and C.J. Spiller looked really good down the stretch. This is the highest rated running back who is stuck in an almost certain time-share situation, so why is he being drafted so high? His numbers from 2011 are impressive, but it would be nearly impossible for him to repeat the huge YPC he had last season. When you add it all up, there is no way a 31-year-old back should be drafted in the 4th round coming off a season ending injury, with a young backup ready to take the starting job.

Mike Wallace (ADP of 39.5) - What makes anyone think Wallace is going to training camp? If the man doesn't get paid, he has no reason to sign his tender and show up, because he can't be fined if he hasn't signed. The Steelers aren't going to reduce the tender, or they would have already done that, so there is no reason for this man to go to camp. He comes off this list as soon as he commits to going to training camp, but he needs to learn the new offense. I would not draft him right now, period. There is absolutely no up-side when you compare him to the wide receivers right behind him who are going to training camp.

Darren Sproles (ADP of 40.8) - I don't dislike Sproles, and I don't think he is going to have a bad season. He is great at what he does, but 41st is too early to pick a flex player. Outside of PPR leagues, Sproles doesn't really register as an RB2 because of the way he scores his points. When you pile on the fact that Sproles caught an unusual number of touchdown passes in 2011, and only ran the ball 87 times, it is difficult to consider him as more than a flex. There is definitely good use for Sproles as a flex player, don't get me wrong, but he probably will produce to the same level that Reggie Bush and Shonn Green will in the 6th-7th rounds.

Demaryius Thomas (ADP of 46.6) - This isn't anything against Thomas, but I don't know how he can be drafted so much higher than Eric Decker. Decker thrived while Kyle Orton was the QB. Thomas thrived while Tim Tebow was the me that puts Decker on top. This is a debate that won't be settled until the 3rd preseason game, when we finally see the starters play significant time, but I am not going to give up a 5th round pick for the same odds that I can get for an 8th round pick in Decker.

Doug Martin (ADP of 47.5) - Martin is far, far and away the most overrated player in any draft right now. This automatic assumption that LeGarrette Blount is going to lose his starting job to a rookie is perplexing, since Blount is a 3rd year back who had a 1,000 yard rookie season. The whole Bucs offense sputtered in 2011, so I am going to give Blount the benefit of the doubt. Even if Martin does get a big piece of the pie, he should be the 3rd down back, just like Jahvid Best. Martin should be an 11th round handcuff rather than a top-25 running back.

Kenny Britt (ADP of 65.0) - I don't need to put him here anymore, because in addition to the multiple knee surgeries and slow recovery, Britt was just arrested...again. Another in the long, long line of DUI cases that the NFL is going to have to go through this offseason. With the rash of cases, you have to assume that punishments will be handed out liberally. Even without the potential DUI suspension, the Titans were beginning to question whether Britt would be ready for the start of the season. This takes Nate Washington up a few notches, and we have to find the new WR2 on the Titans.

Roy Helu (ADP of 68.4) - There are plenty of people drafting him way before the 68th that is listed on the FantasyPros site, but that is moot. Even at 68th, I'm not taking an RB2 for the Redskins...especially not before training camp. Shannahan really wants Hightower to have the starting job, and Helu will be looking at 5-8 touches per game with Royster also on the lineup. There are people who think Royster will end up being the starter, and the whole scenario is a complete mess. Don't gamble on something this unknown. There isn't any reason to.

Willis McGahee (ADP of 74.0) - Another player who is frequently drafted above this quoted number, McGahee thrived in the option system of Tim Tebow, but the Broncos backfield is absolutely stacked, and Peyton Manning has never made a running back any good. Look through Joseph Addai's numbers, if you don't believe me. He is old, there are 4 running backs to get carries on this team, and there is no solid history behind him. Don't lest last season sway your judgement, here. His YPC was off the charts in 2011.

Peyton Hillis (ADP of 87.0) - A lot of people love Hillis for some reason, but there is nothing to suggest that he is more than a handcuff. He might outplay his ADP during the first two weeks or so while the Chiefs ease Charles back into the lineup, but after that he will be useless. The only handcuff worth a pick this high is Ben Tate, because he had nearly 1,000 yards as an RB2 last season. Hillis is no Tate.

There are plenty of other players I won't touch right now, like Ben Roethlisberger, Jahvid Best, David Wilson (except as a hadcuff), Justin Blackmon, or Michael Floyd. Be careful about who you draft before training camp.

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